According to customs statistics, in the first 10 months of this year, China’s total import and export value of goods was 1 trillion yuan, up from the same period last year. Among them, the export was trillion yuan, up; Imports dropped by 1 trillion yuan. The trade surplus is trillion yuan, expanding. In October, China’s total import and export value dropped by 1 trillion yuan. Among them, the export was trillion yuan, up; Imports dropped by 1 trillion yuan. The trade surplus was 100 million yuan, up 33%. Measured in US dollars, the total value of China’s imports and exports in the first 10 months was 1 trillion US dollars, down. Among them, the export was trillion US dollars, down; Imports of trillions of US dollars fell; The trade surplus was US$ 100 million, up 3.5%. In October, the total value of China’s imports and exports dropped by 100 million US dollars. Among them, the export value dropped by 100 million US dollars. Imports dropped by 17 billion US dollars. The trade surplus reached 100 million US dollars, expanding.
Huatai Securities: At present, the global economic situation is weakening, and various countries have implemented relatively loose monetary policies in order to promote economic recovery in the future. In addition, a substantial first-stage agreement was successfully reached at the Sino-US high-level economic and trade consultation in October. The recovery of foreign demand may promote the improvement of China’s exports. However, we believe that the Sino-US game is still moving forward in twists and turns. From the demand-side data, the manufacturing PMI of the euro zone and Japan in October were and respectively, both below the boom-bust line. We expect that the trend improvement in exports may need to wait until the first and second quarters of next year.
Shen Wanhongyuan: Overall, exports to the United States improved in October, and exports to non-U.S. regions were more resilient, and even though mobile phone exports were dragged down by staggered peaks, they still achieved a relatively high growth rate. Looking forward to the following months of 2019 and 2020, it is expected that the uncertainty of the external environment will ease. Foreign demand in non-U.S. regions has been relatively stable since 2019, and is expected to continue to maintain a stable growth trend. In addition, the export base from November to December is relatively low, and it is preliminarily estimated that exports from November to December are expected to rebound to about 10% year on year (in U.S. dollar terms). In 2020, the global economic and trade environment is expected to ease, and foreign demand will also grow steadily. The export growth rate (in US dollar terms) is expected to rise slightly to about 2019.
Founder Securities: From a global perspective, China’s current export performance is still better than that of other major exporting countries. For example, South Korea’s exports as a weather vane for global trade in October were compared with the same period of last year. Judging from the regional distribution, the growth rate of China’s exports to the United States from January to October is still the main drag on exports. The growth rate of exports to the EU and Japan did not decline as expected, and the growth rate of exports to the EU also rebounded. The growth rate of exports to emerging markets remained at a high of 6%. We believe that there is no need to be pessimistic about China’s export prospects in 2020. First, as mentioned above, China’s exports to non-US developed countries and emerging markets are expected to remain resilient as long as the current engine of domestic demand in developed economies does not stall and the current easing in emerging markets continues. Second, the current proportion of consumer goods in China’s exports is close to 30%, which is much higher than that of other major exporting countries. Therefore, if the first phase agreement between China and the United States can eliminate tariffs on 300 billion commodities (mainly consumer goods), the room for further contraction of exports to the United States will be restricted. Third, regardless of the prospect of Sino-US negotiations, it is an indisputable fact that the US side has stepped up its efforts to exclude taxed goods. Currently, half of the 16 billion and 34 billion lists exclude taxes, while the proportion of goods excluded from the 200 billion list also reaches 20%, which is good for the prospect of China’s exports to the United States in 2020.
Description In October, China’s official foreign exchange reserves reached US$ billion, up US$ 12.7 billion from the previous month. We believe that the increase in foreign reserves in October mainly reflects the impact of valuation factors on the appreciation of the euro against the US dollar, and the balance of international payments remains basically balanced. In mid-October, the 13th round of economic and trade talks between China and the United States released positive signals. The RMB rose to close in October and recovered the 7-point mark on November 5. The RMB exchange rate is mainly affected by Sino-US trade frictions in the short term. If the trade negotiation situation is optimistic, especially if the two sides agree to phase out the tariffs already levied, there is a high probability that the RMB will continue to appreciate. Gold reserves stood at 62.64 million ounces in October, unchanged from the previous level. Recently, market risk sentiment has been somewhat restored and gold is expected to fluctuate in the short term. However, we are still firmly optimistic about the investment value of gold in the medium and long term.
Source References from Huatai Securities Macroeconomic Research Report
Original Artical，Author：China Trade Agent，if repost，please give references ：https://offers-bg.com/chinas-foreign-trade-increased/